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News 2022-02-09 | momentum muay thai | spider love | God Xi | atomization | preppers | thru-wall | BASB bad | thigh keyboard | alien fusion | suicidal prison | predictive brains | don't estimate | tech entry | Wirecutter | cheap eats | breed stereotypes

Table of Contents

  1. About: Objective Contrarian news
    1. Content
    2. Format
    3. Support
      1. Healthy!
  2. Muay Thai Bagwork 4 - September 2020 | YT | momentum bagwork | low relevance | relatively good
  3. spider are sentient | 2ndD | mother's egg sac | abused tarantula | garden spiders | HN
  4. Most Unorthodox Fighter. | YT | Genki Sudo | Senator, pop star, MMA legend
  5. Xi Prepares To Rule For Life With Rare 'Historical Resolution' | zerohedge.com
  6. processing atoms for liebling, as demo | THESE ARE NOT MY THOUGHTS, BUT HIS
    1. tiktok talkie drivie sprezzatura | OB, car videos = fashionable effortlessness
    2. modern architecture | insidious | facile self-justifications
    3. Discord drunks | social anxiety | pathetic
    4. video revolution overrated | text better | but advertisers prefer | Facebook scam
    5. international investment | bubble tests | purchasing power | limousine lineup
    6. productivity | work modes | play vs purposeful
    7. done OH
  7. Chinese Govt Tells Citizens to Stockpile Food Before Winter As U.S. Govt Mocks Americans Concerned About Shortages | informationliberation.com
  8. org-gtd | Spacemacs layer for Org-mode GTD | too new?
  9. How Industry Weaponizes Science and Sows Doubt to Serve Their Agenda (mitpress.mit.edu) | HN | mm-wave cell networks | see-thru-wall surveillance
  10. How to build a second brain as a software developer | aseemthakar.com | current state of the art is pretty bad
  11. LPT: Any toothpaste that says "advance whitening" or markets itself to make your teeth very white should be avoided.
  12. Injectable Gel Reverses Paralysis In Mice With Damaged Spinal Cords | iflscience.com | Synthetic nanofiber injection. | alien BCI tech? | ominous
  13. r/ErgoMechKeyboards - Typing split keebs while standing up | Velcroed to thighs. Nice. | viable for Emacsing?
  14. Exercices de boxe avec le sac Everlast Omniflex - 10 minutes. | YT | rare momentum bagwork | bag too light | boxing gloves
  15. Chinese scientists strike early gold in race to nuclear fusion power | scmp.com | alien pyramid tech
  16. Babies don't like grass | r/Damnthatsinteresting | Grass can cause a baby to experience sensory overload. | they're hypersensitive
  17. bonestrike freestanding bagwork 2021-11-17 | zealot recovery
  18. streetfight bonestrike freestanding bagwork 2021-11-17 | zealot recovery
  19. Daddy isn’t coming back (ft.com) | HN | indicating you are suicidal is a defacto crime | institutes worse than prison
  20. To be energy-efficient, brains predict their perceptions (quantamagazine.org) | HN | marriage counseling | see in partner childhood or fears/trauma
  21. Tasking developers with creating detailed estimates is a waste of time (2020) (iism.org) | HN | comments
    1. Poisson distributions | power pressure | incremental evolutions
    2. > freelancers estimate accurately | false | how to mitigate | bill daily instead
  22. Mythical Man-Month | readable | software industry | essential reading | Peopleware also | large software projects | high failure rate | how to | Johnny Caustic>
  23. hangover hack | Dihydromyricetin (DHM) | activated charcoal
  24. get eye drops for long computer hours
  25. Ask HN: How do you start a new career with minimal qualifications? | HN | data entry progression | seize the lateral | tech support entry
  26. keyboard hardware | 42-key Corne split | programmable
  27. joined vs split keyboard | lap vs mobile ergonomics | modal keybinds: hard vs soft
    1. cont
  28. Nazi antigrav mercury vortex tech | China patented | r/aliens
  29. Ex Russian Military General Says Extraterrestrials Are Here | HAF
  30. Wirecutter reviews | affiliate model | so what? | NYT acquisition whored them though | HN
  31. how to eat healthy cheap in USA
  32. Groups never admit failure (nav.al) | HN | cuz it loses cohesion, dies | USAF fighter mafia
  33. Sweden tests hand microchip | Mark of Beast
  34. If you say "breed doesn't matter" when looking for a dog. You are not ready to have a dog. | r/unpopularopinion

About: Objective Contrarian news

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Muay Thai Bagwork 4 - September 2020 | YT | momentum bagwork | low relevance | relatively good

Muay Thai Bagwork 4 - September 2020
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KUX05axFVtc

Some pro muay thai momentum bagwork, noted because it's difficult to find.
Not very relevant to barehand bagwork, because gloves and bag's too heavy.
But some relevance is better than none.
[2021-11-08 Mon 02:31]

spider are sentient | 2ndD | mother's egg sac | abused tarantula | garden spiders | HN

bryans 16 hours ago | unvote | next [–]

A couple years ago I had an experience with a spider that entirely changed my perspective on them and most insects, and now I make a conscious effort to help them as much as possible, instead of kill or even repel them.
This particular spider kept running back and forth between my monitor and a window, and when it'd get to my monitor, it would wave its front legs at me. If I moved to the left, it would run across to the left side of the monitor and waves it legs again. If I stood up and moved closer to it, it would run back to the window, turn around, and waves its legs at me. From watching YouTube too much, I was always under the impression that this was either a sign of aggression or a defensive stance.
But after a few times of going back and forth like this, I realized there were approximately 50 baby spiders around a light by the window, which had been closed since the previous day. Normally this would be a nightmare for me (I've always had a fear of spiders), but after a while, I had this crazy notion that the spider was trying to get me to open the window. So I did, and it immediately ran to the babies, wrapped a single strand of silk around the old webbing, and started dragging swaths of the babies' webbing toward the window.
I have no idea if the room was just dry and they needed some humidity, or if the food had been too scarce for too long. Whatever it was, that parent spider was in full blown panic mode, and managed to effectively communicate their problem to a human. I haven't killed any spiders or insects since (aside from a few particularly asshole-ish mosquitos), and actually keep small water dishes in my bathroom for two spiders who've now lived with me for nearly a year. If any babies hatch inside and get close to me, I use my phone's flash to guide them back to a corner with a light on – they are seemingly always drawn to the brightest light source.
Spiders are incredible creatures, and I deeply regret not realizing that sooner.
reply

lux 13 hours ago | parent | next [–]

I had a similar experience with a spider who had made an egg sack in a precarious spot along our back door that was definitely in hazard's way. I got a stick and a leaf and tried to detach and move her setup to a nearby spot that would be safer. She did not like that.
At one point in the move, she got left behind and I ended up with just the egg sack to move. You could feel the panic and protective instinct in her movements. I got her onto the leaf and reunited with her eggs on a nearby plant and she quickly went to work finding the right spot and securing her sack to the underside of one of its leaves.
I watched her there for a while in her new location, and there is absolutely more than just instinct at play.
I didn't grow up liking spiders much, but gardening in particular has given me a new perspective on them. One measure of our garden's health is the amount of spiders we see, keeping other would-be pests in check.
reply

bryans 12 hours ago | root | parent | next [–]

I had to do the exact same thing once – the mother ran off as I tried to gather her and the sac into a box – and you could see both the panic as she watched the sac being taken away, and the relief when she was reunited.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29137765

Insects have 2D souls, too.
[2021-11-08 Mon 11:40]

sgt101 14 hours ago | unvote | prev | next [–]

One of my school friends walked a different path from me and became a paramedic. He used to have to go to homes in "socioeconomically challenged areas" in order to revive people who had taken substances that they should not have taken - and also other things which were even less good. On one of these trips in a drug hell hole he saw a tank with a spider in it, and he realised that these people were likely mistreating it. So he asked if they wanted it and after a short conversation bought it off them for a nominal amount.
So - he had a tarantula. I had never seen or met a thing like that and I was fascinated. It was very shy at first - it spent all day everyday hiding, possibly because of fear of drug addicts. But eventually it got a bit more confident. The thing was, it recognised and remembered individual humans. When it first met you or saw you it would hide. If you were calm and Kit (the paramedic) was calm with you it would come out and allow you to stroke it. This might take a few visits. But, once you had won it's confidence it would come right out and say hi as soon as you were in the room.
I came to believe that it was self aware, and that it had a mental model that included social interactions and trust. It was just a belief, as it's really hard to see the anecdote and experience I have as data, but that's what interacting with it made me think. I thought it was as smart as a cat, or maybe even a dog.
reply

goldenkey 13 hours ago | parent | next [–]

I've seen similar behavior from garden spiders that I've taken inside before winter. They are afraid at first but eventually warm up to me and let me pet them. Spiders are very cool creatures. An analog of human intelligence, as unique as octopi.

[2021-11-08 Mon 11:41]

Most Unorthodox Fighter. | YT | Genki Sudo | Senator, pop star, MMA legend

Most Unorthodox Fighter.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=42Ov8Tlcnlw

This was the best unorthodox fighter of all time. He didn't just break the technical rules, he did absolutely ridiculous things. With his amazing dance moves and antics, he clowned the best fighters of his generation.

This is the legend of Genki Sudo, welcome to the story of the best comedian fighter in combat sports history.

Brilliant.
We are all one!
[2021-11-08 Mon 12:06]

Xi Prepares To Rule For Life With Rare 'Historical Resolution' | zerohedge.com

Xi Prepares To Rule For Life With Rare 'Historical Resolution'

China's Communist Party Central Committee is now holding its 6th Plenum, running from Nov.8 through Nov.11, where it's expected that an ultra-rare
[REDACTED]

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/xi-push-doctrine-letting-him-rule-life-key-communist-party-meeting

He likely seeks immortality of the flesh via Serpochink backers.
[2021-11-09 Tue 12:13]

processing atoms for liebling, as demo | THESE ARE NOT MY THOUGHTS, BUT HIS

tiktok talkie drivie sprezzatura | OB, car videos = fashionable effortlessness

people record lots of tiktok style talking videos while driving now because they intuitively sense that this communicates a kind of sprezzatura, an effortless casualness. obviously theyre really trying + putting effort into their performance, but the driving signals the opposite.

recording a video of yourself while driving signals "ha, this is just a random thought i had while driving, no big deal. just recorded this casually during my busy day". its the opposite of a living room video or a video shot at a desk, which implies time and effort invested.

destination: 7-Name/2-Flat/video/selfie

modern architecture | insidious | facile self-justifications

Modern architecture: Pretends to be yer friend

The most insidious aspect of modern architecture is how it pretends to be considerate of the common good: a friend of the people. "Modern buildings are so much safer to construct. You wouldn't understand!", "Modern buildings are so much more economical. You wouldn't understand!"

But the worst is also the boldest lie: "Modern buildings are so much more beautiful. YOU WOULDN'T UNDERSTAND."

"Modern construction and modern ideals are the only way to house the poor: it is called progress. YOU WOULDN'T UNDERSTAND."

"Modern urbanism where everyone commutes into a dense central business district is the most efficient way to organize our lives. YOU WOULDN'T UNDERSTAND."
https://remoteyear.com/blog/commute-negative-side-effects

"Modern construction is getting more automated. It is better for people, even if unemployment means millions of people in this country are sitting idle and hundreds of millions can't afford a home without going into lifelong debt. YOU WOULDN'T UNDERSTAND." https://indeed.com/career-advice/career-development/effects-unemployment

destination:
name/architecture/modern/critique

Discord drunks | social anxiety | pathetic

CasualTF2, breaking benjamin & social anxiety

Some people get drunk & talk with strangers on public discord servers because their anxiety is so bad they cant talk to people normally, and they black out & sing people Breaking Benjamin covers 2 try 2 show them an honest expression of themself. and thats the peak of life 4 them

path:
name/shy/losers/internet

video revolution overrated | text better | but advertisers prefer | Facebook scam

Make everything videos? Wrong. People want fast reading over slow video

Truly don't understand "pivot to video." When I get excited to read a piece and find out it's a video that I have to watch for several minutes in real time, I click away. I almost never spend more time on a page where there's a video as opposed to something I can quickly read.

Also the cost and time-sink involved in creating even a competent video is so much greater than what you need to create a decent piece of writing.

So, from the responses, I’m getting that “pivot to video” is happening because advertisers refuse to accept that people now have the power to avoid ads. Media platforms are happy to take their $ even though most video is not watched. No imagination, except the grifter kind.

Pivot to Video was a scam perpetrated by Facebook, who produced false data to persuade publishers that users engaged with video at astronomically higher rates than text/graphics. Thousands of people were fired and millions of dollars was spent on video content nobody wanted.

path:
name/www/medium/video vs text

international investment | bubble tests | purchasing power | limousine lineup

Trader advice: Limousines? No cheap food & prostitutes? Get out.

"If you arrive at a country and discover limousines waiting to transfer foreign investors and their investment bankers to five star hotels, then generally speaking it is time to sell. There is a second unfailing test. If you can't buy a good meal and a young, attractive woman for the night for less than $100, then it is time to get out."

path:
5-Location/Global/Business/Finance

productivity | work modes | play vs purposeful

TWo, creative "open / closed" mode.

Creatives have two kinds of working: open mode and closed mode.

Open mode: A state of unfocused play where you discover new ideas.

Closed mode: A state of focused work where you work towards a specific outcome.

Like breathing, you inhale in open mode and exhale in closed mode.

path:
name/productivity/modes/play

done OH

that should be a very useful demo for everyone
[2021-11-10 Wed 14:52]

Chinese Govt Tells Citizens to Stockpile Food Before Winter As U.S. Govt Mocks Americans Concerned About Shortages | informationliberation.com

Chinese Govt Tells Citizens to Stockpile Food Before Winter As U.S. Govt Mocks Americans Concerned About Shortages

[REDACTED]

https://www.informationliberation.com/?id=62647

Dead serious.
[2021-11-10 Wed 16:38]

org-gtd | Spacemacs layer for Org-mode GTD | too new?

https://github.com/et2010/org-gtd
Spacemacs layer for Org-mode GTD
still new.
[2021-11-10 Wed 17:01]

How Industry Weaponizes Science and Sows Doubt to Serve Their Agenda (mitpress.mit.edu) | HN | mm-wave cell networks | see-thru-wall surveillance

How Industry Weaponizes Science and Sows Doubt to Serve Their Agenda (mitpress.mit.edu)
179 points by anarbadalov 18 hours ago | hide | past | favorite | 117 comments
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29161872

macawfish 15 hours ago | prev | next [–]

This just reminds me of the lack of popular, informed, critical, literate conversation about the risks (privacy risks and others) of widespread, centralized mm-wave cell networks. It's an awful taboo. People think you're spouting conspiracy theories when you link to published, peer reviewed papers that lay it all out. Or worse, industry whitepapers that literally spell out surveillance applications will get perceived as conspiratorial pseudoscientific nonsense. In the name of science.
It's a sick inversion of the conspiracy theory dynamic. In the mm-wave cell network case, industries, governments and academics are spelling out the plan and implementing it in broad daylight.
But if you speak critically of the plan, you don't know what you're talking about because you're no science expert. Well and even if you have a PhD in science, it's in the wrong field so you must be crazy.
Anyhow, a lot of the most interesting stuff gets relegated to the fringes, especially when it has the potential to stir up dominant social or political perspectives.
It's gaslighting by orthodoxy.
reply

adminscoffee 36 minutes ago | parent | next [–]

nothing is worse than people who follow orders in the name of science but only within an prescribed authority group. completely agree
reply

Anthony-G 13 hours ago | parent | prev | next [–]

I know nothing about this issue: I had to look up https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extremely_high_frequency to learn what mm-wave electromagnetic radiation is.
Other than attenuation caused by rain-drop scattering and atmospheric absorption, I couldn’t find much information about the downsides of using EHF EMR in the context of cell networks. Can you recommend any good summaries of developments in this area and its associated risks (privacy or otherwise)?
reply

webmaven 8 hours ago | root | parent | next [–]

Can you recommend any good summaries of developments in this area and its associated risks (privacy or otherwise)?
GP is probably thinking of privacy risks like:
"Using WiFi to see through walls" https://www.extremetech.com/extreme/133936-using-wifi-to-see
The frequencies GP is talking about are higher than current WiFi, but a bit lower than the frequencies used for the terahertz radar that can show exactly what you look like naked.
So, mm wavelengths ought to be adequate to show size, position, movement, posture, gestures (probably including finger and jaw movement), sightlines, and so on, more than enough to create deepfake video reconstructions of the interior of almost any dwelling and their inhabitants, though probably not quite enough detail to be able to tell that you gained a couple of pounds this week, and definitely not enough to reconstruct facial expressions.
Letting your own devices detect all that with active sensing would be bad enough, but being able to get the same info with passive sensing from outside is seriously creepy.

[2021-11-10 Wed 17:09]

How to build a second brain as a software developer | aseemthakar.com | current state of the art is pretty bad

How to build a second brain as a software developer
September 26, 2021
https://aseemthakar.com/how-to-build-a-second-brain-as-a-software-developer/

Current state of the art is pretty bad.
[2021-11-12 Fri 16:39]

LPT: Any toothpaste that says "advance whitening" or markets itself to make your teeth very white should be avoided.

LPT: Any toothpaste that says "advance whitening" or markets itself to make your teeth very white should be avoided.
r/LifeProTips
•Posted byu/onionboi007
5 hours ago

Many toothpastes are very abrasive and can potentially damage your teeth. The fda reccomends that you use toothpaste with less than 80 abrasive levels. (The lower, the better) Many toothpastes that markets itself as whitening your teeth usuall have an abrassive level over 100. These toothpaste may make your teeth white in the beginning but as more you brush with them it will make your teeth a lot more yellow than regular toothpaste Instead of using colgate optic white or tartar control use colgate regular or colgate total care. Also go for toothpaste that is specifically made for sensitive teeth as well. They usually have an abrassive level under 50.

https://www.reddit.com/r/LifeProTips/comments/qtbmi5/lpt_any_toothpaste_that_says_advance_whitening_or/
[2021-11-14 Sun 11:15]

Injectable Gel Reverses Paralysis In Mice With Damaged Spinal Cords | iflscience.com | Synthetic nanofiber injection. | alien BCI tech? | ominous

Injectable Gel Reverses Paralysis In Mice With Damaged Spinal Cord
https://www.iflscience.com/health-and-medicine/injectable-gel-reverses-paralysis-in-mice-with-damaged-spinal-cords/

Synthetic nanofiber injection. Smells like ET tech. Not good.
[2021-11-14 Sun 17:36]

r/ErgoMechKeyboards - Typing split keebs while standing up | Velcroed to thighs. Nice. | viable for Emacsing?

r/ErgoMechKeyboards - Typing split keebs while standing up
https://old.reddit.com/r/ErgoMechKeyboards/comments/qq5zl1/typing_split_keebs_while_standing_up/

Velcroed to thighs. Nice. High portability option. Better than my current method of transporting a big keyboard. To buy for my laptop solution kit. Assuming I can get enough keys to use Emacs.
[2021-11-14 Sun 19:30]

Exercices de boxe avec le sac Everlast Omniflex - 10 minutes. | YT | rare momentum bagwork | bag too light | boxing gloves

Exercices de boxe avec le sac Everlast Omniflex - 10 minutes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qL_1-3o9TmE

Some rare momentum bagwork, but bag is too light, and boxing only, with gloves.
[2021-11-15 Mon 08:19]

Chinese scientists strike early gold in race to nuclear fusion power | scmp.com | alien pyramid tech

Chinese scientists strike early gold in race to nuclear fusion power
A project to replicate the sun’s energy process has shown promise after its first year of experiments, with a comparatively low-cost approach
Lead researcher Zhang Zhe predicts a new generation of large-scale laser facilities will be finished or near completion in China by 2026
Stephen Chen in Beijing
Published: 3:00am, 11 Nov, 2021

Early results from a team of researchers in China have confirmed that an unusual method of achieving fusion will work. Photo: ShutterstockEarly results from a team of researchers in China have confirmed that an unusual method of achieving fusion will work. Photo: Shutterstock
Early results from a team of researchers in China have confirmed that an unusual method of achieving fusion will work. Photo: Shutterstock
At a Shanghai facility the size of a soccer field, Chinese scientists are firing powerful laser beam pulses at a tiny pair of gold cones in a bid to replicate the nuclear fusion process at the heart of the sun.
The cones, as small as pencil tips, have narrow ends which face each other and emit a plasma of hydrogen. When the two hot gas streams collide at precisely the right time and place, and in the right manner, they trigger a fusion reaction – the process which ultimately could provide a source of endless, sustainable energy.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3155546/chinese-scientists-strike-early-gold-race-nuclear-fusion-power

China's ET backers are busy.
[2021-11-15 Mon 13:13]

Babies don't like grass | r/Damnthatsinteresting | Grass can cause a baby to experience sensory overload. | they're hypersensitive

Babies don't like grass
Posted byu/Emergency-Advice-469
4 days ago
https://www.reddit.com/r/Damnthatsinteresting/comments/quq53t/babies_dont_like_grass/

Emergency-Advice-469
level 2
OP
6h

Grass can cause a baby to experience sensory overload. During the first few months of life, a baby’s nervous system is getting tuned up, developing quickly in a way that makes sounds, sensations, and sights intense and jarring

[2021-11-16 Tue 11:13]

bonestrike freestanding bagwork 2021-11-17 | zealot recovery

  • combat meditation leveled up: squeezed-thin light cross †

  • health: first day back from respiratory virus mitigated by HCQ. better than expected. Quit early to be safe.

  • Mostly random techniques.

  • Worked on shin-strike angle. Bag should swing down, not hop forward.

[2021-11-17 Wed 12:27]

streetfight bonestrike freestanding bagwork 2021-11-17 | zealot recovery

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oAJKNehA7a4&list=PLlgfvtRzoY6WULDIP1mvaeyHFqyheSuWK&index=9
[2021-11-17 Wed 13:51]

Daddy isn’t coming back (ft.com) | HN | indicating you are suicidal is a defacto crime | institutes worse than prison

Daddy isn’t coming back (ft.com)
263 points by chesterfield 15 hours ago | hide | past | favorite | 338 comments
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29258716

anm89 12 hours ago | unvote | prev | next [–]

This is the part where every one piles in posting suicide hotline numbers. I would argue most of those people do not have any experience with, or understanding of those hotlines and it's just a trite thing to throw out to show support like "fuck cancer".

You should seriously understand what you are signing yourself up for if you call one of those numbers on yourself or someone else.

For one you are volunteering that person for involuntary incarceration in a mental health facility for an unspecified and potentially unlimited amount of time.

Need to show up to work tomorrow to avoid losing your job? That probably isn't happening.

Need to pay your bills to avoid losing your house? That might not be within your capabilities for the next several months or longer.

Kids need to get to school? CPS is likely going to be handling that for the indefinite future if they don't have another guardian because you aren't going to be around to do it and you are no longer fit to be a legal guardian anyway.

I'd probably rather end up in Jail than in that system.

Simply put, in our society indicating you are suicidal is a defacto crime and you should never do it (including and maybe especially to a psychiatrist/psychologist who maybe taking on legal risk if they don't institutionalize you after the admission) unless you are ready to suffer the consequences.

[2021-11-18 Thu 20:43]

To be energy-efficient, brains predict their perceptions (quantamagazine.org) | HN | marriage counseling | see in partner childhood or fears/trauma

To be energy-efficient, brains predict their perceptions (quantamagazine.org)
339 points by sebg 20 hours ago | hide | past | favorite | 134 comments
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29254496

leobg 16 hours ago | next [–]

Classic in marriage counseling. Many fights occur not because of what the other person has said or done, but because what your own brain has added to their behavior. Often, you see what you are most afraid of. Or what you used to experience in childhood. To “see” that your partner here and now is actually completely different takes a lot of energy.

synlatexc 10 hours ago | parent | next [–]

Reminded of these lines from a poem:
We look at the world once, in childhood. The rest is memory.

[2021-11-18 Thu 20:49]

Tasking developers with creating detailed estimates is a waste of time (2020) (iism.org) | HN | comments

Tasking developers with creating detailed estimates is a waste of time (2020) (iism.org)
448 points by lauriswtf 15 hours ago | hide | past | favorite | 250 comments
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29275659

Poisson distributions | power pressure | incremental evolutions

harry8 13 hours ago | prev | next [–]

An estimate is usually the sum of a bunch of smaller estimates. Those estimates have a probability distribution that is asymmetric. While sometimes they can be quicker than anticipated, the lowest they can go is zero (turns out we don't need it, cut it) and that kind of thing is relatively less common than a blowout the other way. Those blowouts are uncapped, while zero time is a minimum there's no maximum. The unknown unknowns are the things that get you. Seems like it will take X but the frobnicator was broken in ways we couldn't have anticipated so we had to get a different thing and then hack it to make it do what we actually needed etc etc. Each individual item has a low probability of that happening to some extent. When you have a bunch of things in sequence one of them probably will if not more.

IIRC each item is described by a poisson distribution. (Have I got that right, mean, long tail). Nobody models estimates as a sequence of dependent, poisson distributed events, that I've heard of at least. If you did you might at least get a range on the estimate. Between 2 and 20 days. That would be more accurate. Useful to anyone much? Unclear.

wpietri 12 hours ago | parent | next [–]

And one of the classic problems with estimates is that common processes tend to bias estimates.
For example, what (I think) McConnell calls "picking the first non-impossible date". An exec asks how long project Magic Pony will take. A manager asks the team and the team comes up with a number. If the number is higher than what the exec imagined, or even higher than what the manager imagines the exec imagines, pressure is applied on the number. "Are you sure? That seems like a lot." A negotiation ensues, and often the number lands on the first date that engineers can't absolutely prove is impossible. Or the first date that engineers won't quit their jobs over.
For an estimate, we in theory want one where the team has a good chance of hitting it. Say, a 75% chance of success. But iterative pressure from the powerful will shift the distribution to 25%, 5%, 1%.

Better to deliver incremental evolutionary value, so that the business side gets useful feedback iterations on what engineering can deliver. This allows the company as a whole to iterate its customer relationship.
[2021-11-20 Sat 10:04]

> freelancers estimate accurately | false | how to mitigate | bill daily instead

pydry 12 hours ago | unvote | root | parent | next [–]

Doing freelancing work is one of the quickest ways to force yourself to learn how to do good (and fast) estimation of projects. Estimation skeptics into believers very quickly when it’s their own money at stake.

Freelance work has never once worked for me like this. Coz it's my own money at stake I bill by the day.

Even if I could provide 100% accurate estimates (impossible) the following assumptions never hold true:

  • The client has a clear picture of what they want up front.
  • The client won't change their mind about what they want along the way.
  • Circumstances won't force the client to change their mind about what they need from you.
  • Hidden traps won't suddenly spring up (regulatory, technological, etc.).

I quickly learned in my early 20s that offering a client a fixed price for almost any kind of project was sheer insanity as A) you inevitably end up taking on risk that belongs to them and B) they'll be forced to lock in their requirements from day 1.

I always tried to pressure clients to get to MVP and then iterate on a quick a cadence as possible. Unfortunately it's rare that clients fully embrace this and there's always a tendency fatten up MVPs and create "plans" 9 months out for a project that hinge upon a nest of assumptions many of which will almost certainly be invalidated.

Unfortunately the most common outcome is some sort of uneasy truce where I give wildly inaccurate estimates which I say are probably wildly inaccurate.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29275659

Mythical Man-Month | readable | software industry | essential reading | Peopleware also | large software projects | high failure rate | how to | Johnny Caustic>

Johnny Caustic — Today at 10:21 AM

Mythical Man-Month is not only a wonderful book, but it's very, very readable, especially by the standards of computer science. It's actually a book you can read for pleasure. And nobody who works in software has an excuse for not having read it. It's stuff everybody in the field should know.

Another good and readable book in the same vein is Peopleware by DeMarco and Lister.

The failure rate of the largest software projects is astronomically high. If you have deep pockets and want to undertake a very large software project, you'll want to invest in the best programmers you can find, give them private offices, and retain them at any cost. (Diversity hires or open offices pretty much guarantee failure at this scale.) There should be an intense focus on minimizing the number of people needed to complete the project, as the chance of failure approaches 1 as the number of people expands.

[2021-11-22 Mon 16:14]

hangover hack | Dihydromyricetin (DHM) | activated charcoal

JRoseland>

One of the more pharmacologically interesting and effective hangover hacks I've tried is Dihydromyricetin (DHM), it's been widely studied (+200 papers on Pubmed). It has the curious effect of sobering you up when 300 - 900 milligrams are taken after a few drinks. You have to try it to believe it!

Activated Charcoal hacks your hangover by cleaning up toxins lingering in your system. Funnily, chewing up charcoal tablets will turn your mouth black but, don't worry, it won't stain your teeth. Just wash down the tablets with water. Bulletproof offers fancy coconut charcoal - yes, coconuts are so healthy that even consuming burned coconut shells is good for you. If not, you can buy cheap activated charcoal at almost any pharmacy.

get eye drops for long computer hours

Ask HN: How do you start a new career with minimal qualifications? | HN | data entry progression | seize the lateral | tech support entry

Ask HN: How do you start a new career with minimal qualifications?
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29305389

donkeyd 14 hours ago | next [–]

I commented before, but that was before checking your profile, web site and social media. Now I guess, I have a more personal recommendation.

Apparently, you've worked for the same company for over a decade doing data entry, you just passed your Lean green belt and you like tech.

It could be useful to look at business process automation, low code tools or robotic process automation. I've seen the combination of these things used for automating data entry processes in many industries, including yours.

There are many low code and RPA tools available (Mendix, UIPath, etc, just Google it) that offer free online training and certifications. These certs are not extremely hard to get if you have some interest in tech. For many companies in this field, hiring someone experienced with data entry, that can also do automation of those tasks is like finding the holy grail. Especially when you also have a lean cert.

It might be useful to look on Google for products like the one I mentioned and then look in your area for vacancies that require knowledge of them. Maybe there's an interesting opportunity in it for you!

dogman144 12 hours ago | prev | next [–]

Everything donkeyd said paired with critical advice:

The moment someone offers you an opp to do something in the direction you’re interested in going, moonlighting or not, and the finances work at at least a minimum level for you, take it. No, doesn’t matter if you’re a little or a lot under-qualified - say yes and figure it out later.

The highest chance of pivoting successfully, and IMO why many people never pull it off, is how you evaluate the above situation when it happens. Grind it out for 6-18 months, and you have a whole new resume as entry level in tech/w-e your goal is. From there, things open.

By saying yes, once you get something tech-y on your resume and enter into that new network, things just expand and expand. At that point it’ll hard to fail on your transition goal.

Many people however say no - they’re not ready enough, they have too many other things going on, etc. What they don’t realize is, especially with an incomplete resume (no college, college but non-technical, a bootcamp but a so-so one, etc), this is how many (or my guess - the majority) of career lateral transfers happen: seizing the opp when it shows up. They say no out of talent insecurity and fear, no realizing everyone one else is sort of making it up as they go along too early on.

Say yes when opps open up. That’s your window, your “shot,” will look like.

schwartzworld 8 hours ago | parent | next [–]

The moment someone offers you an opp to do something in the direction you’re interested in going, moonlighting or not, and the finances work at at least a minimum level for you, take it.
To put this another way, it's worth it to take a below-average salary because you can probably parlay that into a better one in a year's time. The sooner you start the clock on that year running, the better. My first front-end job paid 20k below market value. After 18 months, I got a new gig and my salary doubled.

silisili 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [–]

Excellent advice - I did this, basically. I knew how to program but no formal experience, and at the time at least there was nothing available nearby and they all wanted degrees.

Tech company came to town and I jumped on it, as a support person. Proved my chops to anyone who would listen, and went up and up and up. Making about 7x now as I did when starting, doing wildly different work!

[2021-11-23 Tue 12:12]

keyboard hardware | 42-key Corne split | programmable

prefc — Today at 11:56 AM

I use a 42 key Corne, and it has more than enough keys for anything one can throw at it. My keymap is on my github. It took me about three months to really get comfortable with it (I wasn't a touch typer before) but now I can't even imagine using a regular keyboard. Not having to crowd my hands a foot away from my chest helps me maintain good posture.

I use colemak on my Corne, and I still maintain 60 WPM on qwerty on a regular keyboard.

Cyberthal — Today at 12:05 PM
link?

prefc — Today at 12:07 PM
[REDACTED]

Cyberthal — Today at 12:09 PM
http://thedarnedestthing.com/corne
not for me
corne
Corne. Awakening to Self. Body Shamanics. Healing. Thoughts and images. Technology and interfaces.
interesting programmability
might interfere with software keybinds
https://www.amazon.com/Perixx-Periboard-612-Ergonomic-Bluetooth-Compatible/dp/B07TKLB1ML
on the lap in the reclining office chair is where it's at

[2021-11-23 Tue 12:13]

joined vs split keyboard | lap vs mobile ergonomics | modal keybinds: hard vs soft

I meant soft interference, where you're accessing hardware modes to access software modes, gets recursive.
Hardware keyboard has modal keybinds, and simultaneously using an app such as Vim with modal keybinds, gets confusing.

Joined keyboard allows resting on lap, for more variety of ergonomic postures. Better finger memory of key location.

it's interesting as a mobile solution, where many keys aren't practical
[2021-11-23 Tue 12:17]

cont

I don't see any way for a split keyboard to deliver my current level of reclining work comfort.
my feet are up on the bed, resting under blankets with a pet heating pad underneath. positively toasty.
currently my legs are supported this way up to the knees.
rolling chair so I can adjust everything, armrest, headrest, etc
it all falls apart without a flat board joined keyboard to balance on my lap.
had to start working this way when I got a crippling tendonitis toe injury in both feet from an ill-advised downhill sprint, now I'd never go back, even though it healed
desks are torture devices
[2021-11-23 Tue 12:34]

Nazi antigrav mercury vortex tech | China patented | r/aliens

I know I'm going to Kill my Karma rating with this one - if for no other reason than I mention the "dirty" word Nazi. This is intended as an open discussion topic.
Posted by u/Alienrg
3 hours ago

Okay, my topic (and question for debate) is… (drum roll)
Do you think that the Nazis recovered a UFO just prior to WW2 in the Black Forest (I think it was in 1935 or 36), and if so, do you think they back engineered it to build die glocke? Assuming you believe so - is die glocke the same object that was recovered in Kecksburg, PA in 1965? If that is the case, who do you think was "recovered" from inside the Kecksburg object? Okay, that's actually four questions - at least they are all related :)
Feel free to comment as you wish (let's stay clear of anything about the Holocaust please - this is about UFOs and technology and I really don't want to offend anyone - especially the Reddit Gods). As always good luck and good hunting.

https://www.reddit.com/r/aliens/comments/r0cocz/i_know_im_going_to_kill_my_karma_rating_with_this/

IMNOTAROBOT0204
2h

First of that's just history and if we don't learn from it were doomed to repeat it. That being said I do believe that the Nazis gained a lot of knowledge through their study of the occult. Funny enough the presumed mode of operation for the die glocke: pressurized mercury in a highly electro magnetic environment has been patented by the Chinese. That right there proves to me that at least in concept the craft could have worked in WW2.

https://patents.google.com/patent/CN102761296A/en

https://www.reddit.com/r/aliens/comments/r0cocz/comment/hlrhm1q/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
[2021-11-23 Tue 23:34]

Ex Russian Military General Says Extraterrestrials Are Here | HAF

Ex Russian Military General Says Extraterrestrials Are Here
HAF

[REDACTED]

https://humansarefree.com/2021/11/russian-military-general-says-extraterrestrials-are-here.html
[2021-11-24 Wed 09:57]

Article is garbage. Claims UFOs only friendly.
Followed up on Russian General, good info.
[2021-12-20 Mon 01:31]

Wirecutter reviews | affiliate model | so what? | NYT acquisition whored them though | HN

callmeal 6 hours ago | next [–]

Wirecutter is a pay-to-play operation. I stopped heeding their recommendations after I discovered that they were aggressively persuing kickbacks and refusing to review products that do not pay. See https://www.xdesk.com/wirecutter-standing-desk-review-pay-to… for example.

Also note that wirecutter in their response do not deny this but try to weasel out by claiming that the word 'kickback' was misleading.

https://www.nytimes.com/wirecutter/our-response-to-nextdesk/

One valid criticism NextDesk raised was our use of the word “kickback” in our business communications, which is a misleading description of the affiliate business model because it implies an illicit transaction. In our company’s early days, we misused the term to describe a straightforward affiliate relationship, but we have since changed how we talk about the affiliate business, which is one we continue to stand behind.

Fission 6 hours ago | parent | next [–]

I wanted to link to an older comment (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24714286) I made on this topic, because I keep on seeing this article. It's turned out to be one of my most upvoted comments on HN, to my genuine surprise.

Reproduction:

I keep on seeing this link pop up. Since no one is replying, I'd like to point out that I think the Wirecutter is actually in the right here. Another HN member did some investigation and found that Xdesk is stretching things: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22144078

In general, having been able to talk with some of the people there, I'm convinced that WC was focused first and foremost on truth-seeking and quality at this point in their life (pre-acquisition) — however, the consensus seems to have been that after the NYT acquired them, they started becoming more incentivized to grow revenue, and started to jump the shark.

[2021-11-24 Wed 10:16]

how to eat healthy cheap in USA

LPT: If you're low on funds and need to eat… A grocery store rotisserie chicken, a big head of broccoli and a box of pasta will feed you for 3 days for about 10 bucks. Free condiment packets for the chicken. Can easily spend 10 on a single small meal, or make it go further.
https://www.reddit.com/r/LifeProTips/comments/rb90ws/lpt_if_youre_low_on_funds_and_need_to_eat_a/

rice beans lentils
food pantries

Cooked chickens tend to be items designed to pull you into the store and encourage you to buy other (profitable) items. They also are a good way to move chicken near expiration. They are referred to as loss leaders, an entire category of items meant to be indirectly profitable.

Step 1: Rotisserie chicken with veggies and rice.
Step 2: Make broth from chicken carcass and veggie cuttings.
Step 3: Chicken (or any soup with chicken broth) with veggies and rice.
Repeat. It's so cheap!

A large container of oats will provide 3 meals a day for 10 days for like $3

You can also do the Mark Watney and buy a bag of potatoes and a block of butter.
[2021-12-08 Wed 11:05]

Groups never admit failure (nav.al) | HN | cuz it loses cohesion, dies | USAF fighter mafia

Groups never admit failure (nav.al)
241 points by todsacerdoti 8 hours ago | hide | past | favorite | 205 comments
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29488641

Animats 8 hours ago | next [–]

A group will never admit they were wrong. A group will never admit, “We made a mistake,” because a group that tries to change its mind falls apart. I’m hard pressed to find examples in history of large groups that said, “We thought A, but the answer’s actually B.”

Now that is a useful insight.

It's a big problem for voluntary associations. Companies can sometimes change their culture, but it usually requires replacing the CEO.

This has come up a few times in military history. "L'audace, toujours l'audace" was a WWI French slogan. It took a huge number of casualties before high command got it that charging into machine guns does not work. Courage does not help. In WWII, a big change was discovering that battleships are not useful once the enemy has torpedo bombers. The resistance of the battleship admirals was overcome by Congress, not the Navy. Congress ordered that the captains of aircraft carriers must be qualified to fly aircraft. Sidelining the "Gun Club" took major political effort.

Now, the US military is struggling with the "Fighter Mafia", which tends to run the USAF despite the ascendancy of drones and the usefulness of the A-10.

[2021-12-09 Thu 11:35]

Sweden tests hand microchip | Mark of Beast

AC> Marjorie Taylor Greene tweets – Around 6,000+ people in Sweden have gotten a microchip inserted into their hand. The chip contains their vaccine passport, train passes, keyless entry, ID’s and more. They can buy and sell with it. Sign of the times…

https://twitter.com/mtgreenee/status/1467939240969441286?s=20

AC being useful.
[2021-12-09 Thu 11:49]

If you say "breed doesn't matter" when looking for a dog. You are not ready to have a dog. | r/unpopularopinion

If you say "breed doesn't matter" when looking for a dog. You are not ready to have a dog.

[REDACTED]

https://www.reddit.com/r/unpopularopinion/comments/rcv1zb/if_you_say_breed_doesnt_matter_when_looking_for_a/
[2021-12-10 Fri 13:09]

Publish At: Author:Cyberthal

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